7月份市場開始出現分化。中東局勢升溫，油價一度突破100美元，加息預期上升推升價值股票，另一方面本年度漲幅强勢的半導體出現大幅糾正。MSCI價值指數本月上漲了3.6%，而費城半導體指數下跌20.61%。整體而言，標普500本月幾乎沒有變化（-0.13%）而更偏重科技股的納斯達克指數則出現了一定的跌幅（-3.20%），顯示出市場資金出現一定程度輪轉的趨勢。

香港市場則出現强勢反彈，恆生指數由22881.02點迅速反彈至25884.43點，漲幅達13.13%，但整體而言更多是收復6月份跌幅爲主，相較於5月收盤價升幅約3%左右。相對而言，恆生科技指數則更爲弱勢。本月度反彈7.98%，甚至未能收復6月份的跌幅。港股市場的資金亦出現從科技股轉向傳統價值股的趨勢。

債券市場在7月則表現一般。由於能源價格上升推升通脹預期，債券收益率同步走高。美國30年國債價格在7月出現了3.93%跌幅，年度跌幅約6%。日本30年期國債收益率亦同步走高，達到接近4%的歷史高位。相對而言，短期國債的收益率波動較小，顯示市場仍未央行未必會出現大幅度加息。黃金價格則相對穩定在4000美元每盎司。

預計環球市場會出現持續波動及資金輪轉現象。然而，美國在中東局勢持續焦灼亦令債券投資出現壓力。建議持續將投資分散至股票、債券、貨幣基金、黃金等市場以持續分散風險。

Market Commentary for July 2026

Market divergence began to emerge in July. As Middle East tensions escalated, oil prices briefly surged past $100. Rising expectations of interest rate hikes boosted value stocks, while semiconductors—despite their strong performance earlier in the year—saw a sharp correction. The MSCI Value Index rose 3.6% for the month, whereas the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 20.61%. Overall, the S&P 500 was virtually flat (-0.13%), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a notable decline (-3.20%), indicating a clear trend of capital rotation in the market.

The Hong Kong market staged a strong rebound, with the Hang Seng Index quickly recovering from 22,881.02 to 25,884.43, a gain of 13.13%. However, this was main a recovery of June's losses (-9.14%); compared to the May closing price, the index was up by only about 3%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index was notably weaker, rebounding just 7.98% for the month and failing to fully recoup its June losses. Capital flows in the HK market also showed a shift from tech stocks toward traditional value stocks.

The bond market had a relatively unremarkable July. Rising energy prices fueled inflation expectations, pushing bond yields higher in tandem. The price of the US 30-year government bond fell 3.93% in July, bringing its year-to-date decline to around 6%. Japan's 30-year government bond yield also climbed synchronously, nearing a historic high of 4%. By comparison, short-term government bond yields saw less volatility, suggesting the market still does not anticipate aggressive rate hikes from central banks. Meanwhile, gold prices remained relatively stable at $4,000 per ounce.

Looking ahead, global markets are expected to experience continued volatility and capital rotation. Furthermore, the prolonged stalemate in the Middle East involving the US continues to exert pressure on bond investments. We recommend maintaining a diversified portfolio across equities, bonds, money market funds, and gold to effectively manage and mitigate risks.

2026年7月市場評論

7月份市場開始出現分化。中東局勢升溫，油價一度突破100美元，加息預期上升推升價值股票，另一方面本年度漲幅强勢的半導體出現大幅糾正。MSCI價值指數本月上漲了3.6%，而費城半導體指數下跌20.61%。整體而言，標普500本月幾乎沒有變化（-0.13%）而更偏重科技股的納斯達克指數則出現了一定的跌幅（-3.20%），顯示出市場資金出現一定程度輪轉的趨勢。

香港市場則出現强勢反彈，恆生指數由22881.02點迅速反彈至25884.43點，漲幅達13.13%，但整體而言更多是收復6月份跌幅爲主，相較於5月收盤價升幅約3%左右。相對而言，恆生科技指數則更爲弱勢。本月度反彈7.98%，甚至未能收復6月份的跌幅。港股市場的資金亦出現從科技股轉向傳統價值股的趨勢。

債券市場在7月則表現一般。由於能源價格上升推升通脹預期，債券收益率同步走高。美國30年國債價格在7月出現了3.93%跌幅，年度跌幅約6%。日本30年期國債收益率亦同步走高，達到接近4%的歷史高位。相對而言，短期國債的收益率波動較小，顯示市場仍未央行未必會出現大幅度加息。黃金價格則相對穩定在4000美元每盎司。

預計環球市場會出現持續波動及資金輪轉現象。然而，美國在中東局勢持續焦灼亦令債券投資出現壓力。建議持續將投資分散至股票、債券、貨幣基金、黃金等市場以持續分散風險。

Market Commentary for July 2026

Market divergence began to emerge in July. As Middle East tensions escalated, oil prices briefly surged past $100. Rising expectations of interest rate hikes boosted value stocks, while semiconductors—despite their strong performance earlier in the year—saw a sharp correction. The MSCI Value Index rose 3.6% for the month, whereas the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 20.61%. Overall, the S&P 500 was virtually flat (-0.13%), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a notable decline (-3.20%), indicating a clear trend of capital rotation in the market.

The Hong Kong market staged a strong rebound, with the Hang Seng Index quickly recovering from 22,881.02 to 25,884.43, a gain of 13.13%. However, this was main a recovery of June's losses (-9.14%); compared to the May closing price, the index was up by only about 3%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index was notably weaker, rebounding just 7.98% for the month and failing to fully recoup its June losses. Capital flows in the HK market also showed a shift from tech stocks toward traditional value stocks.

The bond market had a relatively unremarkable July. Rising energy prices fueled inflation expectations, pushing bond yields higher in tandem. The price of the US 30-year government bond fell 3.93% in July, bringing its year-to-date decline to around 6%. Japan's 30-year government bond yield also climbed synchronously, nearing a historic high of 4%. By comparison, short-term government bond yields saw less volatility, suggesting the market still does not anticipate aggressive rate hikes from central banks. Meanwhile, gold prices remained relatively stable at $4,000 per ounce.

Looking ahead, global markets are expected to experience continued volatility and capital rotation. Furthermore, the prolonged stalemate in the Middle East involving the US continues to exert pressure on bond investments. We recommend maintaining a diversified portfolio across equities, bonds, money market funds, and gold to effectively manage and mitigate risks.

2026年7月市場評論

7月份市場開始出現分化。中東局勢升溫，油價一度突破100美元，加息預期上升推升價值股票，另一方面本年度漲幅强勢的半導體出現大幅糾正。MSCI價值指數本月上漲了3.6%，而費城半導體指數下跌20.61%。整體而言，標普500本月幾乎沒有變化（-0.13%）而更偏重科技股的納斯達克指數則出現了一定的跌幅（-3.20%），顯示出市場資金出現一定程度輪轉的趨勢。

香港市場則出現强勢反彈，恆生指數由22881.02點迅速反彈至25884.43點，漲幅達13.13%，但整體而言更多是收復6月份跌幅爲主，相較於5月收盤價升幅約3%左右。相對而言，恆生科技指數則更爲弱勢。本月度反彈7.98%，甚至未能收復6月份的跌幅。港股市場的資金亦出現從科技股轉向傳統價值股的趨勢。

債券市場在7月則表現一般。由於能源價格上升推升通脹預期，債券收益率同步走高。美國30年國債價格在7月出現了3.93%跌幅，年度跌幅約6%。日本30年期國債收益率亦同步走高，達到接近4%的歷史高位。相對而言，短期國債的收益率波動較小，顯示市場仍未央行未必會出現大幅度加息。黃金價格則相對穩定在4000美元每盎司。

預計環球市場會出現持續波動及資金輪轉現象。然而，美國在中東局勢持續焦灼亦令債券投資出現壓力。建議持續將投資分散至股票、債券、貨幣基金、黃金等市場以持續分散風險。

2026年8月資產配置展望

以上 各項資產於同一類別中，排名不分先後 資料來源：東驥基金管理/東驥基金投資策略委員會